ION:「互联网vs区块链革命系列」之三：早期的挑战_TER

InternetvsBlockchainRevolution:ChallengesintheEarlyDays(Part3)ThisarticleispartoftheInternetvsBlockchainRevolutionSeries.Ifyouareinterestedinreadingtheotherarticles.Intheearlystageofemergenttechnologies,thereareoftenchallengesaroundscalability,cost,andeducation,limitingthedevelopmentofbreakthroughapplicationsandmassadoption.However,thesechallengesaregenerallysolvedovertimeaswehavewitnessedwiththeevolutionoftheInternetandweshouldexpectasimilartechnologicalprogressioninBlockchain.ScalabilityandCost:

PendingEthereumTransactionsafterCryptoKitties’Releasein2017

Despitetoday’sfastInternetconnection,theearlydaysoftheInternetfacedchallengesintermsofscalabilityandcost.OnAugust7,1996,AOL’sInternetservicefailedfromsupportingahighvolumeofInternetusersandwentdownfornineteenhours.Atthatpoint,Americanswereincreasinglylivingtheironlineliveseveryday,andAOLwasthecountry’slargestinternetserviceprovider,amongothercompetitorssuchasProdigy,CompuServeandMSN.TheInternetitselfhasn’tcrashedbuttheabilitytoaccessittemporarilystopped,anditwasabigdealformanywhostartedtogetusedtosurfingthewebintheirdailylife.ThisissimilartowhathappenedintheblockchainworldinDecember2017,inwhichtheofCryptoKittiesspikedtheon-chaintransactionvolumeonEthereumandcloggedthenetwork.Mostuserscouldn’tgettheirtransactionsthroughontheblockchainunlesstheywerewillingtobidahighamountofgasfees,whichcausedalotofconfusionanddistressinthecommunity.WhiletheEthereumnetworkjammademanyofusrealizethecurrentlackofscalabilityofblockchaintechnologyinservicingmorecomplexusecases,bothofthesefailuresinscalabilityduringtheearlydaysofInternetandBlockchainshowedavalidationofhowimportantthesetechnologieshadbecomeinafewyearsfortheearlyadoptersandtheneedforbetterscalabilitysolutionstosupportthegrowinguserbaseanddemand.

AverageInternetandWirelessMobileTelecommunicationSpeedintheUS

ThehighnetworkfeesandcostsforlaunchingastartupduringtheearlydaysoftheInternetandthecurrentstateoftheBlockchainindustryisalsosimilar.Backthen,theprocessofgettingonlinerequiredamodemandaphoneline,inwhichalltheonlineservicesmaintainedanetworkoflocalmodemsforpeopletodialin.Themostpopularonlineserviceatthetime,AOL,charged$9.95/monthfor5hoursofunlimitedaccesswitheachadditionalhourcosting$2.95,whichbytoday’sstandard,wasveryrestricting.Howeverovertime,thebroadbandconnectionswithDSLeventuallycame,scalinguptheInternetspeed,andby2014,theInternetspeedwas200timesfasterand90%cheapercomparedto1999.Similarly,wehavealsowitnessedanincreaseofwirelessmobiletelecommunicationspeedovertheyears,fromlessthan1Mbpswith2Gtechnologyto25Mbpswith4Gtechnology,enablingnewservicestobeviableandpracticalthroughthemobilephone,suchasmusicandvideostreaming.Overtime,thelimitationsaroundthescalabilityandcostweregraduallyremoved,allowingformorecomplexandbandwidth-intensiveapplicationstobepracticalandviable.

TransactionSpeedofVariousBlockchainProjects

Intheblockchainworld,wearestillearlyinthedevelopmentcycleofthetechnology,inwhichthechallengesaroundscalabilityandcostarepreventingthepracticalityofmorecomplexusecasesandlargeuserbase.Lowscalabilitymeansthatthedevelopersoruserswouldhavetopayhigherfeestooutbidtheothertransactionsinthequeuetoreducewaittime.AsofFebruary2019,theaveragetransactionsfeesareroughly$0.13forEthereum,inwhichmorecomplexdapps,suchason-chaingames,wouldquicklyrackuphightransactionfees.Althoughnoteveryactionneedstoliveon-chain,thereisstillanurgentdemandforblockchaintobescalabletosupportthegrowingnumberofdapps,andallthedaytodaytransactions(Visaprocesses24,000transactionspersecond)livingonthesameledger.Numerousprojectsareworkingondifferentmeanstoscalethetransactionspeedofblockchain,withvariabletrade-offsbetweenscalability,security,anddecentralization.WiththerecentmainnetlaunchesofEOSandTRON(4,000and750TPSrespectively),wehaveseenanincreaseofmorecomplexdappsbeingreleasedinthepastcouplemonths,andweexpectthistrendtocontinueasmorescalableblockchainsarebeingdeployedinthespace.Overall,thedifferentscalingsolutionsbeingexploredsuchasnoveldatastructures(Sharding,Tangle,DAG,Codaetc.),layer2solutions(Sidechains,off-chains,hashed-timelocksetc.),andmoreefficientconsensusalgorithms(POS,DPOS,Casper,Avalanche,Hashgraphetc.)willgraduallyincreasethebandwidthandreducethecostfortransactionsontheblockchain,enablingnewusecasesandservicesovertheyears.

ThedecreaseofthecostoflaunchingaStartupfrom1999-2010

Additionally,weexpectthatthecostoflaunchingblockchainstartupswillalsodecreaseovertime.DuringtheInternetrevolution,theaveragecostofstartingastartupalsodrasticallyreducedovertheyears,from$5min1999to$500kin2005,and$50kin2010.Thefirstwaveofcostreductionwasduetotheappearanceofopensource(whichmeantnolicenseforUNIX,webserversandOracledatabases)andhorizontalcomputing(whichmeantnoneedtobuyexpensiveSunservers&EMCstorage).Then,thesecondwaveofcostdecreasewasduetothematurationofcloudcomputing,popularizedbyAWS,providingwebstorage(S3),processingpower(EC2)andtheabilitytoscaleupordowndependingontraffic(auto-scaling)onthecloud.AccordingtoGartner,deployingenterpriseblockchainproof-of-conceptshasastartingcostof$275,000andcangouptoseveralmillionsofdollars.Dependingontheblockchain(Ethereum,Neo,EOS,etc),thedeploymentandtransactionfeesofsimpledappsonpublicblockchainscancostyou$30-85k(interestingbreakdownhere),andcurrentblockchaintalentsareinshortageandexpensive($150konaverage).SimilartotheevolutionoftheInternet,wealsoexpectacostreductioninlaunchingblockchainprojectsastheblockchaintransactionspeedbecomesmorescalableandcheaper,morefull-stackplatformsontheenterpriseside(BaaShosting-Kaleido,AWS,Azure,Oracle,etc),developmentplatform(NoOps-Esprezzo),middlewares(Omnitude)anddevelopertools(Mist,Geth,Remix,etc)arebeingreleased,andmoretalentsmigratingintotheblockchainspace.Education:

Atonepoint,50%oftheCD'sproducedworldwidehadanAOLlogoonitEducationisanessentialdriverfortheadoptionofnewtechnologies,loweringthebarriertoentry,andhelping"crossingthechasm"(atermcreatedbyGeoffreyMoore).Beforethechasm,technologyisusuallytreatedasaforeignobject,andonceithastrulycrossed,itisperceivedassafetoconsume.DuringtheearlydaysoftheInternet,JanBrandtfromAOLwashiredasVPofmarketingtogrowitsuserbase.Duringmarketresearch,sherealizedthatpeopledidn’tknowhowtousethecomputeras“someonetookacomputermouseandstartedpointingitatthecomputerliketheremotecontrol”,soitwasimportanttogobacktothebasics.Sellingconsumersonthevirtueofoneonlineserviceoveranotherwasnotasimportantaseducatingconsumersonwhatanonlineservicewas.ThemarketingstrategyimplementedbyAOLwastosendouttrialdisksandCDsforpeopletotryout,andtheresultsprovedtobeextraordinary,withpeoplesigningupandprovidingtheircreditcards.AOLre-investedsomuchintothestrategythatCDswerefoundeverywhere,inpeople’smailboxes,onnewcomputers,inmagazines,givenawaywithmovierentals,etc.sothatatonepoint,50%oftheCDsproducedworldwidehadtheAOLlogo,leapfroggingthecompetitorsandgrowingitsuserbasefrom200kto25Mclientsovertheyears.Overall,AOL’scampaignisagoodexampleofasuccessfulinitiativeindrivingadoptionbyactivelyloweringthebarrierofentryforthelesstech-savvycrowdofearlyusers.

LearnandEarn0xprogramfromCoinbase

Todrawaparallelwiththecryptocurrencyworld,wehaveseenmanyinitiativesineducatingthenextgenerationofcryptoandblockchainadopters,withlargeconferences,suchasConsensus,corporateeducation,takenbyDeloitteorIBM,developereducation,suchasConSensysAcademy,anduniversityeducation,suchasBlockchainEducationNetwork.Manycompaniesarealsoattemptingtoingiveouttokensorcoldwalletsforfreethrougheventsandmarketingcampaigns.Recently,Coinbaselaunchedalearnandearncryptoprogram,offeringcryptocurrencyrewardsforcompletingtheireducationalcourses.Currently,interactingwithblockchainstillhasalotoffrictions,andrequireyoutohavesomefoundationknowledge(private/publickeys,gas/transactionfeesetc.)comparedtotraditionalpaymentsolutionssuchasVenmo,orPaypal,nottomentiontheirreversiblerisksthatcomewithkeymanagementandtransactions.Wearestillearlyintheindustrywithlessthan1%ofworldwideadoption,andeducatingthegeneralpopulationaboutcryptocurrency,blockchainandkeymanagementwillbeveryimportantfortheindustrytogrow.LargecompaniessuchasAOLandCoinbasearewellpositionedtoofferextraincentivesthroughgiveawayCDtrialsandcryptocurrenciestoactivelyhelplowerthebarrierofentryanddrivefurtheradoption.Overall,it’sundeniablethattheBlockchainindustryhasbeenmakingsignificantprogresstowardssolvingthechallengesaroundscalability,cost,andeducationoverthepastfewyears.Althoughwearestillearlyinthistechnologicalcycle,weareconfidentthatBlockchainwillmatureinasimilarfashionastheInternet,graduallybecomingmorescalable,affordableandpracticalformassadoption.-----TheInternetRevolutionfactsarebasedonthebook“HowtheInternetHappened”,writtenbyBrianMcCullough.MarkTwainoncesaid“Historydoesn’trepeatitself,butitdoesrhyme”.WeareattemptingtodrawsomesimilaritiesbetweentheInternetandBlockchainRevolutions,tohelpentrepreneursandinvestorsbetterunderstandtechnologicallifecycles.Sources:Book“HowtheInternetHappened”,writtenbyBrianMcCullough.https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reply-unending-chasm-how-survive-geoffrey-moore/https://www.coinbase.com/earn/0xhttps://bothsidesofthetable.com/why-has-seed-investing-declined-and-what-does-this-mean-for-the-future-6a9572357130https://bothsidesofthetable.com/a-deep-dive-into-what-has-really-changed-in-venture-capital-f5d225f7f8https://howmuch.net/articles/crypto-transaction-speeds-comparedhttps://ylv.io/how-much-does-it-costs-to-run-dapp-in-2018/https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/ethereum-transactionfees.html八维研究院出品的其他研究跨境金融科技平台Pandaq正式发布｜八维资本XTrueChain

《互联网vs区块链革命》系列之一：早期的成功产品

《互联网vs区块链革命》系列之二：颠覆性公司的起源

硬核技术：证券型通证需要专属的区块链吗?

企业级区块链：过去、现在和未来

Medium:https://medium.com/@8DecimalCapital

八维资本是一家跨境的国际专业区块链投资机构，管理美元和Token两支基金，总资金规模超过六千万美金。团队合伙人来自一线VC、PE，基金顾问包括前瑞士银行中国区CEO陈庆，前红杉中国创始人合伙人张帆。八维专注于区块链赛道投资，同时对上下游产业资源进行战略布局。八维投资了底层技术、隐私、存储、SecurityToken、稳定币等赛道的顶尖项目，如EOS、Icon、IoTeX、Zilliqa、Bluzelle、IRISNetwork等，同时布局了交易所、媒体、咨询、技术社区等战略协同资源，如0x、Fcoin、Kyber、Bibox、Mobilecoin、Dorahacks、星球日报、币世界、WXY等。在美国TokenMetrics榜单中，八维投资回报位列50家国际基金的前三位，也被36氪、清华x-lab等机构评为中国Top10区块链投资机构。

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