Gate.io Research: Bitcoin Periodic Correlation Analysis

TL;DR1.BlackRockandCoinbase’sPartnershipstrengthensapositiveinstitutionalattitude2.USmacrorecoverybutinflationispushingFedtobemoreaggressiveonraisinginterestrates3.BitcoinreturnisgrowingclosertoUSequitymarkets4.BitcoinreturnisstrictlynegativelycorrelatedwithUSinterestrates5.BitcoinreturnissensitivetoM0changesratherthanM1orM2intheUS1.ResearchBackground

1.1InstitutionalPreference

BlackRockInc.(NYSE:BLK)announceditspartnershipwithCoinbaseGlobalInc.(NASDAQ:COIN)onAugust4,2022,sendingCoinbasesharesrocketingthatday.Thispartnershipisastrongstimulusforthenegativecryptomarketsentiment,hammeredbyfallingpricesandgovernmentinvestigations.As,BlackRock,thelargestassetmanager,ismakingiteasierforinstitutionalinvestorstomanageandtradeBitcoin.TheannouncementfueledCoinbasesharestorocketforafewdaysandwaseventuallycalmedbyCoinbase'sQ2earnings.Nevertheless,thismoveisconsideredaleapinthecryptomarketasinstitutionalinvestorsarereachingin.'Thepactisaseismicshiftinthecryptoindustry.'saidLeahWald,CEOofValkyrieInvestments.TopBlackRockclientswillgainaccesstoBitcointhroughitsAladdininvestmentmanagementsystem,makingiteasiertomanagetheirexposurealongwiththeirstocksandbonds.Andthefocus'willinitiallybeonBitcoin',BlackRockmentioned.BlackRockisthelargestassetmanagerintheworld,with8.5trillionUSDundermanagementbyJune2022andthereareapproximately21trillionUSDworthoffinancialassetsmanagedonAladdin.AccordingtoCreditSuisse,thetotalwealthoftheworldby2020is418trillionUSD,andthetotalassetonAladdincountsfor5%ofit.1.2MacroRecovery

跨链桥Stargate将建立ETH跨链流动性池并为其设置激励措施:5月30日消息，跨链桥 Stargate SIP 7 已由社区投票通过。该提案提出在以太坊主网、Optimism 和 Arbitrum 上建立 ETH 流动性池，并为其设置激励措施。提案通过后，项目团队将花费数周时间进行合约部署等工作，完成后用户可通过 Stargate 实现 ETH 的跨链转账。[2022/5/30 3:50:22]

TheUSeconomyadded528,000jobsinJuly,beatingestimatesby100%,andJunejobdataisupwardlyrevisedto398,000.ThebiggestpushinJulywasleisureandhospitality,particularlyinfoodserviceanddrinking.Andtheunemploymentratefellto3.5%whichisathistoricallowtyingthepre-pandemiclevel.Thisisastrongshowingofeconomicrecovery.However,theskyrocketinginflationisstillahugehurdlefortheFederalReservetocross.Standingonthishistoricalturningpointofeconomicuncertainty,itisveryimportanttoreviewwhathistoryhastaughtusandmoveforwardwiththenewforcesinthecryptoindustry.Inthisstudy,wewillexaminethehistoricalcorrelationsofBitcoinreturnsrelativetoothereconomicandmarketvariablestoshowthewaybeforeandhopetogainsomeinsightsintothepathahead.Standingonthishistoricalturningpointofeconomicuncertainty,itisveryimportanttoreviewwhathistoryhastaughtusandmoveforwardwiththenewforcesinthecryptoindustry.Inthisstudy,wewillexaminethehistoricalcorrelationsofBitcoinreturnsrelativetoothereconomicandmarketvariablestoshowthewaybeforeandhopetogainsomeinsightsintothepathahead.2.MethodofResearch&Data

Bitcoinmarketismoreofaglobalmarketratherthanaregionalone.Butinthisresearch,wearefocusingontheUSeconomyasastartingpointandwouldextendtoothereconomiesinthefuture.ThisresearchwilladoptmonthlydatafromJan.2015toJun.2022.WearepickingBitcoinmonthlyreturnsasitisabetterindicatorandeasiertocomparetoothervariables,especiallymacroeconomicvariablesinthisresearch.Correlationsbetweenallthevariableswillbecalculatedanddifferenttimeframeswillbeselectedtocalculatethecorrelationindifferenttimeframes,inanattempttoseechangesindifferentmarketconditions.ThefollowingUSmacroeconomicdataareselected:ItisimportanttostatethatanycorrelationfoundinthisresearchdoesNOTindicatecausation.Thecorrelationonlysuggeststhetendencyoftwovariablestomovetogether,andhowdeepthattendencyis.Causationrelationscanonlybeinferredthroughfurtherstudies.AlldatausedinthisresearchisfromtheSt.LouisFREDdatabase.3.SimpleCorrelationAnalysis

Gate.io已上线SHIB、XCH永续合约交易:据官方公告，Gate.io已上线SHIB/USDT,XCH/USDT永续合约实盘交易（USDT结算），支持1-20倍做多和做空操作，杠杆率可以在下单时自行选择。提示：请用户务必在完全了解风险并能承担风险的情况下参与，Gate.io平台不对投资行为承担担保、赔偿等责任。[2021/5/8 21:38:41]

3.1Methodology

Simplecorrelationanalysiswoulduseallthedatatocalculateonecorrelationcoefficientbetweenanytwovariables.Thisanalysisistogiveamacroviewoftherelationbetweenallthevariablesandservesasabenchmarkforthefollowinganalysis.3.2Correlations&Analysis

ThechartaboveshowsthesimplecorrelationcoefficientsbetweenBitcoinreturnsandothervariables.Therearethreeinterestingfactswefound:1.Althoughthecorrelationcoefficientsarelowingeneral,withahighof0.27andalowof-0.23,thecoefficientsarehigherincertainmarketreturnscategories.2.ThecorrelationbetweenBitcoinreturnsandinflationforallurbanconsumersisnear0,andthecorrelationwithinflationinfoodissignificantlyhigherat-0.23.ThisisagoodindicationthattheUSmoneysupplycausedinflation,andtheoversupplycoupledwithCovidencouragedalargenumberofindividualindicatorstopurchaseBTCduringtheCovidWFHperiod.3.Thecorrelationintheinterestratecategoryisallnegative,suggestingtheriskynatureofBitcoinreturns.ThiscouldbecausedbystronginterestmovesbytheFederalReservetocontrolinflation.4.CommoditymarketdoesnothaveanobviousrelationwithBitcoinreturns.4.AnnualCorrelationAnalysis

4.1Methodology

AnnualcorrelationanalysiswoulddivideeachvariableintodifferentnatureyearsandcalculatethecorrelationwithineachyeartofindaprogressionofrelationsbetweenBitcoinreturnsandothervariables.ThechangesincorrelationcoefficientswouldoffergoodinsightsintohowBitcoinreturnsprogressovertheyears.Wewouldalsocomparetheannualcorrelationwiththesimplecorrelationfromtheprevioussection.Andsincewearestillintheyear2022,wefurtherexaminedtheresultswithandwithoutdatafrom2022attheendofthesection.4.2Correlations&Analysis

Gate.io已开通XMARK/USDT交易:据官方公告，Gate.io投票上币空投福利第122期Benchmark （XMARK）投票上币活动结束，本次活动参与人数为4,670，共投出26,580,887票。票数超过1000万票，符合上币要求。Gate.io已为用户空投7,300 XMARK代币奖励，并于4月24日9:00开通XMARK/USDT交易与开通提现服务。XMARK空投福利活动正在进行中，活动结束时间为4月30日9:00，充值前600名、新用户注册加交易活动即有机会领取4,000美金代币空投奖励。[2021/4/24 20:53:42]

ThefigureaboveshowsthecorrelationevolutionbetweenBitcoinreturnsandmajormarketindexreturns.Asthefigureshows,thetrendvariesovertheyearsandisextremelyunstable.However,thecorrelationsareveryclosetoeachotheruntil2022.Thiscouldbeexplainedbythelackofdatain2022orthesignificantbearmarketorabadmacroeconomicenvironment.Whenwetakeacloselookatthisgraph,theupwardtrendisveryclear,especiallybefore2022.ThereisagrowingtiebetweenBitcoinreturnsandmajormarketindexes.Thereisanothercharacteristicofthisgraphwhencomparedtotheothers,isthatthelinesareverytighttogether.Thisiscausedbythehighcorrelationbetweenmarketindexes,around80%oftheequitymarketmovestogether.Thefigureaboveshowstheannualcorrelationbetweeninflationsandlabormarketstatistics.Somecleartrendscanbeobserved:1.ThecorrelationbetweeninflationandBitcoinreturnsisdroppingovertheyears,whiletheinflationinfoodandBitcoinreturnsareslowlygrowingties.ThismaysuggestthatBitcoinisgrowingawayfromitsdigitalgolddefinitionandbecomingmoreofariskyasset.2.ThecorrelationsbetweenBitcoinreturnsandlabormarketstatisticsareallrisingfrom2015to2021anddroppingsharplyin2022,especiallythecorrelationwiththeunemploymentrateofpeoplewithbachelor'sorhigherdegreesandagesover25.ThisfigureshowsthecorrelationtrendbetweenBitcoinreturnsandmoneysupply.Itisclearthatthecorrelationlevelsarerisingthrough2015and2021.Thecorrelationpeakedin2021andsoonturneddownin2022.Thedownturnin2022,couldbejustanadjustmentofanupwardtrend,likemanybefore.Oritissimplyduetothelackofdatain2022.ThistrendalsoshowsthatBitcoin'sbehaviorresemblesthatofariskyasset,withapositivecorrelationtomoneysupplies.Figure5showsthecorrelationbetweenBitcoinreturnsanddifferentinterestratelevels.SimilartoFigure2,thelinesareverytightandtrendinginthesamedownwarddirection.ThedownwardtrendofthefigureisveryclearandthisisinlinewithwhatwasfoundinpreviousfiguresthatBitcoinisbehavinglikeariskyassetratherthanarisklessone.Asimpleeconomicslessonhere.Whenthereistoomuchmoneyintheeconomy,theFederalReservewouldincreasetheinterestratetoreduceliquidity.Lessmoneyintheeconomywouldcauseriskyassets,likeequities,totank.Therefore,thecorrelationbetweentheequitymarketandinterestratelevelisnegative.WhenBitcoinisnegativelycorrelatedwithinterestratesandpositivelycorrelatedwiththeequitymarket,wecouldinferthatBitcoinisactinglikeariskyasset.4.3AnnualCorrelationSummary

OpenSea首席财务官：声称OpenSea的交易量自5月以来下降了99%是错误的:金色财经报道，OpenSea首席财务官BKRoberts在社交媒体上称，昨天财富杂志发表了一篇报道，声称OpenSea的交易量自5月以来下降了99%。框架、方法和来源是错误和不公平的。虽然他们已经更新了故事，但该错误引发了加密报告中的责任问题。缺乏责任感令人震惊，所以我要强调《财富》选择忽略的背景：他们用一天的时间来衡量变化。展示了他们的“分析”是多么荒谬。他们在 5 月挑选了一天，比3/1和6/30之间的平均值高6倍。我也鼓励《财富》杂志进行更好的研究并找到更可靠的来源。他们声称我们一天就赚了27亿美元。这意味着每年的运行速度为1万亿美元。有这么幸运吗？

此外，BKRoberts称，更广泛的加密空间总是会起起落落，但围绕NFT的兴趣和兴奋仍然存在。现在还是第1天。[2022/8/31 12:58:58]

Theannualcorrelationcoefficientssummaryisasfollows:Asthetableabovesummarizes,thereareverycleartrendsbetweenBitcoinreturnsandmostofthevariables.However,allthetrendsshiftedin2022.Asmentioned,thiscouldbeexplainedbythelackofdata,sincethereareonly6monthsofdatainthesample.OrthestrongBearmarketistoblamefortheshift.Ingeneral,BitcoinisbehavingclosetoariskyassetwithagrowingcorrelationwiththeUSequitymarket.5.Bull&BearCorrelationAnalysis

5.1Methodology

Inthismethod,wewouldtrytocutthedatabybullandbearmarketconditions,andcalculatethecorrelationbetweentheBitcoinreturnsandothervariablesineachmarketcondition.Inthismethod,wewouldliketoexploretheinteractionsindifferentmarketconditions.SincethedefinitionofBullorBearmarketconditionisnotstrictlydefined,thedivisionofdataissubjectivetoourdefinitionsandtheconclusionissubjecttopersonalview.Ourdefinitionisasfollows:Bullmarket:whentheBTCreturnsareingeneralpositiveandrising.Bearmarket:whentheBTCreturnsareingeneralnegativeanddecreasing.Figure6showsthemonthlyreturnsofBitcoinforthepastfewyears,andwewilldividetheBullandBearmarketasfollows:5.2CorrelationsandAnalysis

WhaleAlert：1300枚BTC从Coinbase转入币安:金色财经消息，据WhaleAlert数据显示，1300枚BTC（约27951670美元）从Coinbase转入币安。[2022/8/19 12:36:28]

Accordingtoourbullandbearmarketdivision,thecorrelationbetweenBitcoinreturnsandmarketindexesishigherinbullmarketsandlowerinbearmarkets.ThisfindingsuggeststhatBitcoinreturnsaremoreinsyncwithstockmarketreturnsduringbullrunsandlessinpaceduringbearmarkets.TheCorrelationbetweenmoneysupplyandBitcoinreturnsisnotuniform,suggestingthemoneybaseismorecloselyrelatedtoBitcoinreturnsthanM1andM2duringdifferentmarketconditions.Figure9showstheevolutionofBitcoinasanasset.Duringthefirstbullmarket,thepositivecorrelationsuggestsBitcoinismorelikearisklessasset.However,asBitcoinevolvesoverthemarketcondition,itisgainingtheattributeofariskyasset,ratherthanarisklessone.Aswementionedatthebeginningofthissection,thedefinitionofbullandbearmarketsisnotstrict.Wemadeourdefinitionsandbasedouranalysisonthem.Theresultsinthissectionarenottobeinferredasinvestmentsuggestions.6.BTCReturnsVolatilityComparisonAnalysis

6.1Methodology

Inthepreviousanalysis,wehaveestablishedthatBitcoinreturnsaregrowingmorepositivelycorrelatedwithmajorUSequitymarketindexes.Inthissection,wewillexplorethevolatilityofBitcoincomparedtotheUSequitymarketindexes.Wewillcalculatethestandarddeviationtoquantifyvolatilityforeachyear.Thehigherthestandarddeviationis,thegreaterthevolatilityis.6.2Volatility

Thefigureaboveshowsthevolatilitylevelsovertheyears.WecanclearlyseethatBitcoinvolatilitiesaresignificantlyhigherthanthatoftheequitymarkets.ThisisenoughtosaythatBitcoinisariskyassetwithhighvolatility.Anotherinterestingdiscoveryisthatequitymarketreturnsvolatilityisraisingfrom2017to2020,butBitcoinreturnsvolatilityisdropping.Combinedwiththegrowingcorrelation,thisisshowingsomelevelofconvergencebetweentheBitcoinmarketandthemajorUSequitymarket.7.Conclusion

Bitcoinandblockchaintechnology,withtheirgrowingimpactandtechnicalcapability,aregainingmoreandmoreattentionaroundtheworld,andBlackRockisjustthelatestofmany.Thisstudy,asmentionedinthebeginning,isasimplerecapofhowBitcoinhasevolvedintermsofrelationswiththemarketandeconomicvariablesovertheyears.Thereweremanyupsanddowns,andsowillthefuture.Whathasnotchangedisourfaithinthistechnologyanditsbrightfuture.Therearesomesimpleconclusionsthatwecandrawfromthisstudy:1.Bitcoinisgrowingmorecloselytoanequity-likeriskyassetwithahighpositivecorrelationwiththeequitymarketsandanegativecorrelationwithinterestrates.2.BitcoinreturnsaremoresensitivetomonetarybasechangesratherthanM1orM2.3.Bitcoinreturnsarenegativelycorrelatedtoinflationbutpositivelycorrelatedtoinflationinfood.4.Bitcoinreturnsaremorecloselyrelatedtoequitymarketsduringbullruns.5.BitcoinreturnsvolatilityissignificantlyhigherthanthatofthemajorUSequitymarketswhichmeansBitcoinisfarriskier.Disclaimer

*Thisarticlerepresentsonlytheviewsoftheobserversanddoesnotconstituteanyinvestmentsuggestions.*Gate.ioreservesallrightstothisarticle.RepostingofthearticlewillbepermittedprovidedGate.ioisreferenced.Inallothercases,legalactionwillbetakenduetocopyrightinfringement.GatewaytoCryptoTradeover1,400cryptocurrenciessafely,quicklyandeasilyonGate.ioSignuptoenterthecryptogatewayandget40%commissionfromreferralsDownloadiOS/AndroidApprightnow.Reachouttous!Twitter:https://twitter.com/gate_ioTelegram:https://t.me/gate_ioInstagram：https://www.instagram.com/gateioglobalMedium：https://medium.com/@gateioPodcast:https://gateio.buzzsprout.com/?ch=buzzsGate.ioTeamOctober20

标签：THELATANDELA2023togetherbnb全部攻略platon币价格ANDROTTWEILERelastos

XRP热门资讯